Cheng Yuan: The focus of the Chinese auto market is still "taking the grassroots level" in the east.

Cheng Yuan has something to say:

Recently, there has been a popular reference in the media: "The car market is moving westward." Even some media companies have established new factories in the west, such as FAW-Volkswagen, Geely Volvo, etc., asserting that the development focus of the Chinese auto industry will shift from the east to the west.

The auto show in Chengdu not long ago has shown a tendency of “car market to the west”. The auto companies’ enthusiasm for the Chengdu auto show has generally increased, and it has indeed increased the pace of “going to the west”. However, in my impression, the Chengdu Auto Show was highly regarded, not since this year, at least two or three years ago, the Chengdu Auto Show has been "brightly popping up," and no longer on equal footing with other capital cities such as Changchun, Tianjin, Nanjing and Wuhan. In addition, Chongqing, which is also in the west and “directly under the jurisdiction” has also been left behind. It is only about the same as the Guangzhou Auto Show, and it has become the “fourth” national car exhibition undisputedly.

"There is a market behind the auto show," and it is now common knowledge. The Chengdu Auto Show is valued because the Chengdu market has grown rapidly. Especially in the first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the automobile market has become saturated. After the growth has been significantly inhibited, the enterprises have turned their attention more to the western development. market. However, judging from this point of view, the development focus of China's auto industry has shifted from east to west, and it is still too early for the western region to replace the eastern region as the most important market for automobiles.

I remember that four or five years ago, General Manager of Shenyang General Motors Wuling Shenyang once told the author: The micro-vehicle heat that developed in the eastern region 20 years ago did not appear in the west 20 years later, and the price of mini-vehicles dropped by nearly half. The case of a significant increase in quality shows that the gap between the economic levels of the eastern and western parts of China is not narrowing but is becoming wider. It should be said that Mr. Shenyang’s judgment four or five years ago has not changed fundamentally.

We know that the development of the automotive industry has a positive relationship with the overall economic development, that is to say the overall economic level determines the state of development of the automotive industry. The rapid development of the automotive industry in East China and South China is primarily due to the fact that the overall economic development in these regions is rapid and the level is relatively high. This "first-mover advantage" is also conductive, transmitted layer by layer, and becomes a continual development. In this case, from provincial capitals to prefecture-level cities, to county-level towns and townships. For example, Guangdong is not only a lonely city in Guangzhou, but has formed a large number of emerging cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Huizhou, Zhongshan, Shantou and Dongguan. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, and so on are all the same. In the eastern region, due to the high overall level of the economy, people’s demand for cars is also generally strong, and cars are very popular in these places.

Undoubtedly, after the Central Government put forward the strategy of “Great Development of the Western Region,” the west’s economic level did have a big development, but overall, the western region is still far from “rising”, and the economic development in the west is still a “point” state. There are still no emerging urban agglomerations in the west. China's uneven economic development may be more prominent in the west. Compared with Chengdu, the average level of the entire western region may be even larger than the gap between the western and eastern regions.

In several central cities in the southwest, Chengdu, Chongqing, Kunming and Guiyang, automobile consumption is actually rising. Especially in Chengdu, the growth rate is particularly prominent. However, the growth potential of only a few central cities is very limited. Moreover, due to the limitation of the overall economic level, the development of transportation facilities in the central cities in the west is also lagging behind. As Beijing is known as the "first block," Chengdu is now "honored" as "a (day) block;" Guiyang's holding of only 600,000 vehicles has become the second car-restricting city after Beijing. According to a friend in Chongqing, they often receive such messages: "I am being jammed in a certain tunnel," or "I am stuck on a certain bridge," and it also makes the "unimpeded project" in Chongqing very difficult. . In recent years, catching a plane in Kunming has been regarded as a "frightening way", often more than 20 minutes drive, an hour ahead of schedule, it may also be missed. All these indicate that the development potential of the cars in the central cities in the west is very limited.

The overall economic development of the western region and the huge disparity in the east have determined the possibility that the western region will replace the eastern region as the major market for Chinese autos, and it is still not visible.

To say that “the market is going west” is actually a relative concept. Compared with the past, the western market has been greatly improved. However, speaking from the overall perspective, in the visible future, the development focus of the Chinese automobile market will still be in the east. "Going to the grassroots level", to the provincial capital city to the county, township, town, village extension. Yin Jiaxu, the former chairman of Chang'an Automobile, once said: “How can we not walk out of Chongqing to the world?” The current chairman of Chang'an Automobile, Xu Liuping, is deploying production capacity in the southern part of the eastern part of the country. Therefore, “the market is going west”. At present, it can only be said to be a “tendency”.