Every autumn is the season most expected by car dealers and automakers. However, in the context of the overall decline in the domestic auto market in 2011, Jin Jiuyin and Shiyin did not come as expected. In particular, the relatively sluggish medium and heavy truck market directly dragged down the entire commercial vehicle market. Looking forward to the year, the negative growth of domestic commercial vehicle market is a foregone conclusion.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, commercial vehicle sales in October 2011 were 304,000, a year-on-year decrease of 9.93% and a decrease of 6.9% from the previous period. Compared with September, the production and sales of all types of commercial vehicles declined in different ranges in October, among which the decline in passenger car sales was most pronounced. In October, the number of passenger cars sold was 32,900, a month-on-month decrease of 14.27%, a year-on-year increase of 23.33%; truck sales were 203,300 units, a decrease of 6.68% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year decrease of 10.83%; sales of semi-trailer tractors were 23,500 units, a slight decrease of 0.42 points from the previous quarter. %, down 20.93% year-on-year.
From January to October 2011, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3,285,700 and 3,400,600, respectively, down 7.65% and 5.25% respectively year-on-year. Compared with the same period of 2010, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly, with an increase of more than 13%, while the sales of trucks decreased by 3.15%, and the tractor-trailers decreased by 27.4%.
In the overall declining commercial vehicle market, the heavy-duty truck and passenger car markets have also shown a differentiation: due to the impact of national economic regulation, the truck market demand continues to decline, and the passenger car market has been highlighted by the rapid growth of bus transportation and export markets.
The heavy truck market is hard to beat
When talking about the auto market in October, the China Automotive Industry Association concluded that the number of cross passenger cars in passenger cars was down, the number of trucks in commercial vehicles decreased, and the number of passenger cars increased. Overall, it was good for people to ship and the goods were not good. .
Affected by such factors as slowing investment, tightening monetary policy, rising logistics costs, and difficult fueling, truck market demand continues to decline, especially for the heavy truck market. Since February 2011, it has been in a freezing state, accumulating since May. The year-on-year decline continues to expand. In the first 10 months of 2011, the heavy truck market sold a total of 770,200 vehicles, a decrease of approximately 10.3% year-on-year.
Among them, the 150,000-strong Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle ranked first in terms of negative growth by 2.6% year-on-year; the second-placed total sales volume of FAW-Liberation amounted to 138,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%; and the third-placed China National Heavy Duty Truck Group sold 121,200 units. , a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%%. In the second tier, Foton Auman sold a total of 93,200 heavy-duty trucks and maintained an increase of 6% year-on-year; Shaanxi Auto sold a total of 85,800 heavy trucks, a year-on-year negative growth of 8%. As for the third echelon, Beiben and Hualing also dropped by 13.8% and 11% respectively year-on-year.
One of the reasons for the disparity between trucks and buses is the central government’s control over the economic growth, which has led to higher transportation costs and the impact on freight transport. At the same time, the people’s living standards have continued to increase and passenger cars have been promoted. Growth; On the other hand, compared with the international level, China’s long-term ratio of commercial vehicles is too large and passenger cars are too small. After a period of time, this gap is narrowing, but it has not yet been completed.
In 2011, China's economic development adjusted its structure, and its important task was to promote the decline of commercial vehicles. The reduction in the proportion of investment in economic development directly affected the sales of heavy commercial vehicles. Given the overall situation in the first three quarters, commercial vehicles have no hope of ending at the end of the year.
In this regard, the industry believes that despite the increase in the national overstrain of governance overload, the tractor market has a certain degree of recovery, heavy truck manufacturers such as FAW liberation known to tractors have begun to trough out, single month sales return to 10,000 More than one vehicle, and most dealers stocks after several months of dumping, the stock situation is still within a reasonable controllable range, but the negative growth of the heavy truck market is already irreversible. In particular, heavy trucks are estimated to have a negative growth of around 10% year-on-year.
Bus is still going strong
From January to October 2011, a total of 52,823 buses were sold, a year-on-year increase of 10.50%. Passenger transport is an industry related to people's livelihood. With the deepening of urbanization and the government's efforts to promote preferential public transport policies in recent years, the passenger car market has maintained a good momentum of growth.
Due to the stimulation of the peak travel season of the Spring Festival, May Day, and National Day holiday each year, the passenger car market will show significant growth before these holidays. Therefore, the September bus market on the eve of the National Day witnesses a year-on-year growth. However, in the past October The sales volume dropped obviously from the previous month. In December, on the eve of the Spring Festival, another small climax is expected.
In the last two months of 2011, the general pattern of the passenger car market has been basically set, but overall, the growth rate is higher than expected, and bus buses are the main source of market growth. In the future, the growth of buses and buses supporting bus industry will be Stay at least 5 years.
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