Four kinds of electric vehicle route analysis

At the 2012 2nd Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Construction & Grid Integration Industry Summit held in Shanghai, Dr. Li Lili of the Institute of Smart Grid of the Energy Research Institute of the State Grid Corporation pointed out that China’s current understanding of the integrity of electric vehicle routes is insufficient and should be based on The development of the vehicle technology route and the power supply service are combined.

Plug-in hybrid life cycle is short? The selection needs to be cautious. Li Lili said that in terms of economy, the structure of pure electric vehicles is relatively simple. Once the battery technology achieves a breakthrough, its total life cycle cost of ownership is expected to be lower than that of fuel vehicles, hybrids and plug-in hybrid vehicles. In terms of convenience, convenience can be a major advantage of electric vehicles, as it can provide power and energy supply through slow parking and public quick change/charge, plus simple maintenance, if the cruising range is close to traditional fuel vehicles.

In terms of fast charging capability, lithium titanate batteries currently used by some companies have entered commercial applications. It is advertised that under the conditions of a charging rate of 10 degrees Celsius (corresponding to a quick charge time of 6 minutes), the life span can reach 6,000 times; Low energy, about half of current mainstream battery products.

The plug-in hybrid technology is based on the perspective of the vehicle. It provides solutions through the efficient mixing of the pure point drive and the internal combustion engine, which is an improved solution. Quick change technology is based on the perspective of energy supply services. It provides solutions through the rapid replacement of batteries and is a transformational solution. From the standpoint of deciding the solution, both are viable solutions to bypass the current battery bottleneck and thus have a mutually substitute relationship.

Li Lili believes that the information released by authoritative agencies at home and abroad will not last for 5-10 years. The latest speech by US Secretary of Energy Zhu Xiwen pointed out that before 2015, the cost of batteries is expected to drop by 70% compared with 2008, which is about 1,500 yuan/KWh. By 2020, it is expected to drop below 700 yuan. The NEDO Institute of Japan, Nissan Corporation and other authoritative organizations as well as China's "energy-saving and new energy automotive industry development plan" (draft for solicitation) both put forward similar goals. "What kind of route we take in the transition period of the power battery will have a profound impact on the future of China's new energy vehicles.

What are the four routes?

Next, Li Lili detailed a comparison of four commercial models based on energy supply methods:

Plug-in hybrid + slow charge + refueling pure electric + quick change + slow charge pure electric + fast charge + slow charge pure electric + slow charge "pure electric + slow charge and" pure electric + fast charge + slow charge in the feasibility There are deficiencies, and "plug-in hybrid + slow charge + refueling and" pure electric + quick + slow charge have a good feasibility. "Pure electric + slow charging cannot meet the rigid demand of users for public fast energy supply services, and it cannot represent the direction of delivery.

“Pure Electric + Fast Charge + Slow Charge The current bottleneck for battery fast charging is far lower than traditional fuel replenishment methods in terms of convenience. Fast-charged batteries have progressed but are expected to be difficult to become mainstream within five years. The long-term feasibility of achieving a fast charge equivalent to a fueling time of up to several hundred kilowatts (equivalent to the power of a single blower) under conditions of equivalent fuel mileage for a fuel vehicle has yet to be demonstrated in depth.” Plug-in hybrid + In the development path of slow charging and refuelling, the hybrid technology of oil and electricity is difficult and core, and battery and power supply services are in a subordinate position.

"In the pure electric + quick-change + slow-charge development line, the power battery technology is at the core, and it has a higher demand for the battery industry's technological level, scale, and power supply service capacity. This is an important change in the development model of the traditional automotive industry. The route has a clear focus, highlights industry cooperation, and facilitates centralized management of resources and breakthroughs in key technologies such as batteries.

Adaptability to market demand Comparison of China's market routes presents the trend of renting, public transportation, and logistics to the private sector. The "pure electric + quick change + slow charge can effectively meet the needs of the first batch of users of the exchange demand-driven demand, drive market development, and can simultaneously take into account" slow charge demand-led user demand. Rental, public transportation, etc. as the first batch of users, For the battery quality, reliability, life expectancy, and the quality of charge and exchange service quality have higher requirements, can effectively test and promote enterprises to effectively enhance the core technology and industrialization process, which will help improve the core competitiveness of China's related industries.

"Plug-in hybrid + slow charging + refueling can meet the actual operational needs of the first batch of customers such as taxis, buses, logistics, etc. However, due to the limited proportion of purely electric-driven processes in this route, there is a low requirement for energy supply. The impetus to the power battery technology and charge/discharge service industries is limited, and the risk of replacement of the power exchange technology by fast charging technology is still uncertain, and it can also effectively respond to risks through functional positioning transformation.

"The plug-in hybrid + slow charging + refueling development line is a progressive technology, and its technical process is mainly determined by the entire vehicle company and parts and components company in the original industry, and the "pure electric + quick change + slow charge development line is a sudden change." The technical progress of this type is mainly determined by the battery companies outside the Yuan industry and the power supply service operators.

“By pure electric + quick-change + slow charging, the current foreign auto giant's competitive barriers built on traditional internal combustion engines and hybrid power are completely ineffective, and it requires the entire industry to rebuild its value chain, which is important for China to reverse its unfavorable position in international competition. Strategic significance.

In the current two viable development paths, the "pure electric + quick change + slow charge" plug-in hybrid + slow charge + refueling line is more in line with China's electric vehicle industry core strategic objectives, more suitable for nurturing The promotion of technological progress at the same time as the market is more conducive to the establishment of China's competitive advantages, greater sustainability, and less industrial risks.

Premier Wen Jiabao wrote in July last year that “Cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries. It is crucial to strengthen scientific and technological innovation. Only technological innovations occupy the commanding heights and industrial development can occupy the commanding heights. This is related to China’s cultivation and development. The success or failure of strategic emerging industries Li Lili said that although electric motors and electronic control technologies are also key technologies in the electric vehicle industry, they have played a fundamental and decisive role in the power battery technology, taking into consideration China’s traditional gasoline and diesel engines and hybrids. Power technology lags far behind the international advanced level. Power battery technology has provided a rare breakthrough for China to occupy the commanding height of the future new energy automobile industry. We should cherish this rare opportunity.