The dilemma of construction machinery industry will continue

From an industry perspective, the construction machinery industry situation is not optimistic. According to the construction machinery market survey report of the construction machinery industry, the 28 major excavator manufacturers included in the statistics sold 4559 excavators in total in September, a year-on-year decrease of 33% and a year-on-year decrease of 15%; from the August sales figures, the current month The market share of foreign brand excavator products continued to rise to 60.32%, and the domestic brand excavator market share dropped to 39.68%. From January to August, the sales volume of hydraulic excavators was 49,620 units, and the market share of foreign companies' products was 61.25%, which continued to show a rising trend. The domestic market share of enterprises was only 38.75%.

At the same time, we also see that since the second half of this year, apart from increasing railway investment, the country has shown obvious control over other properties such as real estate investment and monetary policy. In particular, the pressure on the inflection point of the real estate industry has increased significantly. This will affect the construction machinery industry in the future. It is expected that this unfavorable factor will extend for a long time. Although the construction machinery industry is facing a series of favorable policy factors such as: the national new urbanization plan, the approval of the 36 city rail plans, and railway investment, the market for the construction machinery industry is sluggish in the short-to-medium term. The situation of overcapacity and excess inventory will still maintain a fairly cyclical phase.

From the point of view of the operating capability index, net profit, and main business income of listed companies for construction machinery in the past four years, most of them have fallen to a certain extent. For example, Sany Heavy Industry's performance is expected to decline by about 50%, but from the construction machinery industry as a whole. The decline in main income and net profit of the company has not changed. The listed companies such as Changlin and Xiagong have continuous losses.

At the same time, the author found that the 10 years before 2012 was a period of rapid development of China's excavators. In particular, in 2010, driven by the 4 trillion yuan domestic demand policy, the industry has seen a large amount of excess capacity in recent years. In order to absorb serious excess production capacity, construction machinery manufacturers have implemented more radical business policies, such as zero down payment and installment payment, making the already very high financial risks more difficult to control, and the result of excessive competition in the entire industry. Many businesses and distributors are struggling on the verge of life and death.

Judging from the industry competition situation, the vicious competition based on market share theory makes the eco-environment in the industry complicated and confusing, and the relationship between OEMs, OEMs, OEMs, OEMs, and agents continues to deteriorate. The never-ending price war, price coordination time and time again, has caused all related parties to be embarrassed.

Judging from the top 10 brands of the latest domestic engineering institutions and industrial enterprises, the competitive advantage of foreign brands has risen significantly and it has formed a squeeze on domestic construction machinery companies. In November of this year, the report of key enterprises for construction machinery issued by the China Reporting Hall showed that the top ten key companies in the construction machinery industry are Caterpillar, Komatsu Komatsu, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Volvo, and Terex. Such advantages are obvious, and 7 of the top 10 brands are foreign brands, indicating that the share of foreign brands has increased rapidly.

In summary, the data shows that the performance of the domestic construction machinery industry and sellers should be within a relatively poor cycle. At present, the domestic construction machinery industry is still in a weak period of the market, and it is expected that this weak situation will maintain a fairly cyclical period. The listed companies of construction machinery are still faced with a great probability of difficulties, so from the perspective of investment choice, investors should take In response to the strategy, the domestic economic growth slowed down, and the “triangular debt” triggered by the sudden drop in downstream demand has penetrated into the upstream and downstream industrial chains. Investing in company stocks in such industries requires close observation of the evolution of China's economy.