The container shipping industry achieved remarkable results in the first half of the year, but in the past two weeks, the freight rates have continued to decline. The explosive status of the container shipping industry in July already did not exist, and a large number of new ship orders will bring enormous pressure to the shipping market in the fourth quarter of this year.
It is understood that in the past two weeks, the freight rate in the container transportation market has continued to decline. Among them, European routes were under pressure from demand, and freight rates fell by 0.9%. The volume of routes between the United States and the United States and the West was stable, but prices fell. Statistics also show that European routes have been greatly increased in supply of new classes of accommodation since August. Shipowners from certain parts of mainland China have already taken the initiative to lower freight rates due to increased supply. TEU is lowered by US$20 to US$30 per container, or even US$50. The situation appears.
At the same time, the volume of North American routes that have experienced double-season surcharges this year has experienced an explosive growth since the second quarter of this year. However, since August, full-fledged conditions have been maintained, but the prevailing situation is not as good as the previous level, and the utilization rate of the accommodation has declined. Falling.
Industry sources pointed out that the significant increase in the capacity of new ships to be shipped is a key factor that caused the ship’s full load to be less than the second quarter. September will be a very important observation point. Under normal circumstances, the fourth quarter is the traditional off-season of container transport, but how light it will be, it is worth the continued attention of the market. In particular, the supply of idle transport capacity will not put pressure on the market in the fourth quarter, and it will gradually become clear in September.
“With the risk of a second bottom in the global economy, we believe that the early end of the peak season and the apparent decline in the container shipping market after the peak season are a high probability event.†Gong Li, an analyst at Industrial Securities, believes.
Obviously, the container shipping industry's hot and tight shipping capacity in July stimulated a large number of orders for new ships. The market expects that the excess capacity will still dominate the container shipping market in the long term. According to statistics from Clarke Marine Consulting Co., Ltd., stimulated by the recovery of container shipping in the first half of the year, 32 new containers were added to the global container ship in July. The total capacity was 198,000 TEUs, which was the total capacity of new orders in the first half of this year. 19 times. With the delivery of transport capacity, the ratio of total shipping orders in container shipping to capacity decreased from 37.4% at the beginning of the year to 28.7% in August.
At present, container ship owners and brokers are paying close attention to the performance of the freight market. This year's peak season is not as good as previously expected, and the recent economic data from the United States and Europe has intensified people's concerns about the second bottom of the economy. . Some ship owners have begun to seek a sound strategy. It is reported that at least one ship owner has signed a lease with a tenant for a 12-month lease period, and he does not want to risk losing the rental price in the next three months.
The Changjiang Securities analysis report pointed out that in the short term, the container shipping industry has no doubt about the decline in the fourth quarter transportation volume, and the peak season surcharge will probably be cancelled. The worst plan is that the freight rates of European routes will plummet, causing huge losses and devouring the profits of the American routes.
It is understood that in the past two weeks, the freight rate in the container transportation market has continued to decline. Among them, European routes were under pressure from demand, and freight rates fell by 0.9%. The volume of routes between the United States and the United States and the West was stable, but prices fell. Statistics also show that European routes have been greatly increased in supply of new classes of accommodation since August. Shipowners from certain parts of mainland China have already taken the initiative to lower freight rates due to increased supply. TEU is lowered by US$20 to US$30 per container, or even US$50. The situation appears.
At the same time, the volume of North American routes that have experienced double-season surcharges this year has experienced an explosive growth since the second quarter of this year. However, since August, full-fledged conditions have been maintained, but the prevailing situation is not as good as the previous level, and the utilization rate of the accommodation has declined. Falling.
Industry sources pointed out that the significant increase in the capacity of new ships to be shipped is a key factor that caused the ship’s full load to be less than the second quarter. September will be a very important observation point. Under normal circumstances, the fourth quarter is the traditional off-season of container transport, but how light it will be, it is worth the continued attention of the market. In particular, the supply of idle transport capacity will not put pressure on the market in the fourth quarter, and it will gradually become clear in September.
“With the risk of a second bottom in the global economy, we believe that the early end of the peak season and the apparent decline in the container shipping market after the peak season are a high probability event.†Gong Li, an analyst at Industrial Securities, believes.
Obviously, the container shipping industry's hot and tight shipping capacity in July stimulated a large number of orders for new ships. The market expects that the excess capacity will still dominate the container shipping market in the long term. According to statistics from Clarke Marine Consulting Co., Ltd., stimulated by the recovery of container shipping in the first half of the year, 32 new containers were added to the global container ship in July. The total capacity was 198,000 TEUs, which was the total capacity of new orders in the first half of this year. 19 times. With the delivery of transport capacity, the ratio of total shipping orders in container shipping to capacity decreased from 37.4% at the beginning of the year to 28.7% in August.
At present, container ship owners and brokers are paying close attention to the performance of the freight market. This year's peak season is not as good as previously expected, and the recent economic data from the United States and Europe has intensified people's concerns about the second bottom of the economy. . Some ship owners have begun to seek a sound strategy. It is reported that at least one ship owner has signed a lease with a tenant for a 12-month lease period, and he does not want to risk losing the rental price in the next three months.
The Changjiang Securities analysis report pointed out that in the short term, the container shipping industry has no doubt about the decline in the fourth quarter transportation volume, and the peak season surcharge will probably be cancelled. The worst plan is that the freight rates of European routes will plummet, causing huge losses and devouring the profits of the American routes.
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