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In 2007, the sales volume of forklift trucks in China reached 139,000, an increase of 30% year-on-year; the number of export trucks was 47,000, an increase of 78% year-on-year, and the export volume accounted for approximately 34% of the sales volume; and the contribution of export increments to sales growth reached 65%.
In 2007, the global sales volume of forklifts reached 0.907 million, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Consumption is based on regional composition as follows: Europe accounts for approximately 40% of the world's forklift market share; followed by North America (United States + Canada), approximately 21%; China's market share has exceeded 11%; while Japan's share does not exceed 10%; the proportion of the rest of the world is close to 16%.
China's domestic fired counterbalanced forklifts accounted for about 80% of sales, while global forklift sales accounted for more than 50% of electric forklifts. This is because electric forklifts have become mainstream products in the forklift market in Europe, the United States and Japan. The author believes that due to China's lower environmental protection requirements, more frequent forklift operations, poor operating environment and operating costs and other factors, the demand for forklifts in China will continue to favor the use of internal combustion forklifts.
In the global forklift market, Toyota and Linde are far superior, with an annual sales income of over 5 billion U.S. dollars; and Ankang and Hangcha are dominating the domestic forklift market, with a combined market share of more than 50%.
Based on the fact that China's export volume of forklift trucks is still low in overseas markets, its cost-effective advantage is outstanding, and export tax rebates lead to domestic companies' export impulses, etc., it is expected that China's forklift exports will continue to grow rapidly in the future, and the compound annual growth rate before 2010 will be no less than 30. %. In the next three years, the annual growth rate of domestic forklift sales is expected to remain above 20%, and the dependence on overseas markets will increase.
Rapid growth in sales in China
As a widely used logistics transportation tool, since 1999, China's forklift sales have maintained a rapid growth.
The internal combustion counterbalanced forklift (IV+V class) is a mainstream product in China, and it has an advantage in the sales structure. It has maintained a ratio of about 80% for many years.
Exports have become the main driving force for sales growth. In 2007, China exported 47,000 forklift trucks, an increase of 78% year-on-year, and exports accounted for approximately 34% of sales; while the increase in exports accounted for 65% of sales growth. In the composition of exports, the internal-combustion forklift accounts for about 60% of the export volume, which is lower than its sales volume, and electric forklifts account for about 40%. This constitutes a structure related to the global consumer forklift market that uses electric forklifts as the mainstream consumer structure.
Global demand rises steadily
Compared with China, the global sales growth of forklifts has been relatively stable in recent years. According to the statistics of the World Industrial Vehicles Association, in 2006, a total of 824,000 forklift trucks were sold globally, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year; sales volume reached 907,000 vehicles in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 10%.
Judging from the regional composition of the global forklift market, Europe is a large forklift consumer market, accounting for a relatively stable forklift market share of approximately 40%; followed by the North American (American + Canadian) market, its market share has declined, 2007 The annual rate is approximately 21%; China has surpassed Japan to become the third largest forklift consumer market, and apparent consumption (sales + imports - exports) has increased year-on-year in global market share, now exceeding 11%; while the demand for Japanese forklifts accounts for global The market share also showed a declining trend, in which annual consumption accounted for no more than 10%; the proportion of demand for forklifts in other parts of the world continued to increase, and it has now approached 16%.
Different from the demand structure of forklifts, which mainly consist of internal combustion-balanced heavy-duty forklifts, the proportion of electric forklifts (I+II+III) in the world’s forklift consumption has exceeded 50%. Among them, the proportion of electric forklifts in Europe accounted for more than 70%, and electric forklifts in North America and Japan accounted for about 50%, maintaining a rising trend.
Due to China's relatively low environmental protection requirements, more frequent forklift operations, poor operating environment, and operating costs, China's forklift demand is more inclined to use internal-fueled forklifts. The consumption structure and development are quite different. It is estimated that the situation will continue to be longer. time.
External demand is mainly based on domestic demand
Due to its wide applicability and the need for the great development of China's logistics industry, forklift trucks are generally considered as construction machinery products that are cyclically weak and whose domestic demand can maintain rapid growth over a long period of time. However, after analyzing the data in recent years, we will find that the performance of domestic demand for forklifts is different from the above understanding.
Taking the apparent consumption (sales volume + import volume-export volume) as an indicator of domestic demand, the domestic demand for forklifts in 2007 was 106,000, an increase of 13.5% over the previous year, and the growth rate was down by nearly 16 percentage points year-on-year. Sex is not obvious, and its growth rate is gradually slowing down.
What caused the above phenomenon? Due to the wide range of downstream forklift trucks, it is difficult to determine the direct influencing factors. However, from the perspectives of the scale of development of the logistics industry and the fixed assets investment in warehousing and retail industry, it does not show any obvious correlation with the domestic demand of forklift trucks. We also failed to find other macro data to better explain the above phenomenon.
Is it the domestic forklift market is already facing saturation? If this is the case, according to the experience of the US and Japan forklift market, the future demand for forklifts will have high correlation with GDP growth.
However, due to the following reasons, the domestic demand for forklifts still has a lot of room for development.
Compared with the developed countries, China's logistics costs still have a large space for decline. From January to September of 2007, the cost of social logistics in China was 3.0283 trillion yuan, accounting for 18.2% of GDP, far higher than the ratio of developed 10%. It shows that China's logistics efficiency still needs to be improved, and the necessary transportation equipment for the development of modern logistics such as forklifts still has great demand.
Comparison of the number of forklifts used for unit logistics costs (forklift ownership/social logistics costs): North America and Japan reached 130 vehicles/billion U.S. dollars during peak periods, while China currently has 89 vehicles/billion U.S. dollars. In terms of the amount of 500,000 vehicles, considering that China's logistics costs are still growing, it is generally believed that the amount of domestic forklifts is far from saturated.
Due to high labor costs, advanced technology has already completed the process of forklifts instead of manual handling, and the operating cost of forklift trucks (mainly driver's wages) is much higher than the purchasing cost. Therefore, when purchasing forklifts, the performance is even more concerned than the price; while the cost of labor in China is low, the forklifts The cost of procurement is relatively high, and it is still in the process of replacing the manual handling of forklifts. The demand for forklifts will increase with the increase in labor costs and will be more sensitive to product prices.
Even if the logistics industry in the United States and Japan are more mature, the growth rate of demand for forklifts is higher than that of GDP when the economy is in the rising stage, and the elasticity coefficient is above 1.5.
Therefore, industry insiders believe that the deceleration in domestic demand for forklifts in 2007 may be a temporary phenomenon. Considering that China's GDP will maintain a growth rate of more than 8% for a long period of time in the future, it is expected that the annual growth rate of demand for forklifts in China before 2010 will be Stay at 15% level.
Overseas market development space
The proportion of China’s forklift exports in overseas markets is still relatively low: In 2007, China’s forklift’s overseas market share was only 5.9%. Among them, the internal combustion forklift accounted for 8.8% and the electric forklift accounted for 3.9%.
The export area is dominated by the major forklift consumer markets such as Europe and the United States and has a large market capacity.
China's forklift's cost-effective advantages are outstanding. According to customs statistics, the average price of China's export trucks has remained at about US$11,000/vehicle in recent years. In comparison, Toyota, Jungheinrich and Nako (2006) accounted for 42.9% of global sales. The average price of products such as Dachang's products are all above US$25,000 per vehicle, which is more than twice the average price of China’s export products. Therefore, the cost-effective advantage of our forklift is obvious.
As the export of forklifts enjoys a tax rebate rate of 17%, and the current average export price of forklift trucks is equal to the domestic sales price, considering the tax rebate factors, the profitability of export trucks is actually better than that of the domestic market. Therefore, domestic companies have strong export impulses and have accelerated the establishment of overseas marketing networks, which also helps Chinese forklifts to move into the international market.
Although the appreciation of the renminbi has a negative impact on the export price/performance ratio, the industry believes that the impact is limited and it is expected that the export of forklifts will continue to grow at a relatively rapid rate in the future.
In summary, we have reason to believe that the annual growth rate of domestic sales of forklifts will maintain a relatively high rate of growth in the next three years, and will present some new features.
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