The extent to which the energy tax will affect China’s macroeconomic performance may come to an end.
Recently, Jiang Keji, director of the Energy System Analysis and Market Analysis Research Center of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, disclosed that the research report on energy tax has been completed. This study carries out the impact of energy taxation on China's economic development from quantitative and qualitative aspects. The analysis shows that the levy of energy tax has a very significant inhibitory effect on future energy demand, but it has limited impact on the Chinese economy.
The report, entitled "Research on China's Energy Tax System Design and Implementation Plan," was jointly completed by the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, and Tsinghua University. The project was launched in 2005 and Jiang Kejun is the project leader.
In his recent article titled "Energy tax will not affect China's economic development," Jiang Keji said that under the current development situation, it is imperative to levy energy tax as a very effective way to curb energy demand. To a considerable extent, it can promote the healthier development of China's economy.
However, the introduction of a specific timetable for energy tax may not be optimistic. One of the reasons is that, as a kind of energy tax, the fuel tax reform is still difficult to produce after 14 years.
Jiang Kejun suggested that the implementation of the energy tax policy can be started 4-5 years after the implementation of the fuel tax, "so that we can collect more energy types based on experience in fuel tax collection."
In addition, there is much debate over whether the levy of energy taxes is based on the market-based reform of energy prices. The market-oriented reform of China's energy prices, because the current market competition in the energy sector is not perfect, and the cultivation of new market players takes time, so when will be completed is not optimistic.
Energy tax has limited impact on China's economy
According to Jiang Kejun, the energy tax (also known as energy consumption tax) is a tax on energy use levied on energy consumers.
Specifically, it focuses on the taxation of energy in fossil fuels. By imposing an energy tax, the price of high-energy-consuming products (mainly fossil fuels) and products harmful to the environment will increase, leading to a decrease in the consumption of such products. This will serve the purpose of curbing fossil energy consumption and further reducing the use of fossil fuels to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Considering that energy consumers are more dispersed, energy tax will be paid by energy production companies. The object of taxation is energy production enterprises, such as coal, petroleum, electricity, and natural gas industries. Imported energy is collected at the customs.
In an interview with the media, Jiang Kezhen once said that the original intention of the energy tax design was to allow environmental harmers to take into account the social costs of their activities and include them in private costs. The purpose of promoting energy saving and emission reduction is achieved through price levers.
The analysis results of the study show that the levy of energy taxes has a very significant inhibitory effect on China's future energy demand. When the tax rate is 50 yuan/ton of standard coal, the energy demand will decrease by 6.3%, with an energy saving of 126 million tons of standard coal. When the tax rate is 120 yuan/ton of standard coal, the energy demand will decrease by 16.2%, saving about 400 million tons of energy. Standard coal.
Of course, the levy of energy taxes will also have a negative impact on GDP. However, the quantitative analysis concluded that "the impact is quite limited."
Assuming that an energy tax will be collected in 2010, the tax rate will be 50 yuan/ton of standard coal, compared with no taxation, the GDP loss will be 0.4%. This is mainly due to the increase in energy prices led to the suppression of the relevant economic sectors and the decline in the output value of the energy industry.
However, these figures did not fully consider the role of China in reducing the import promotion of the economy, as well as reducing domestic investment in the energy industry and increasing the substitution effect of investment in some emerging industries.
Jiang Kejian believes that if these effects are taken into account, the loss of GDP will be very limited, or it will have a positive effect. At the same time, from the perspective of GDP growth, there is basically no change.
In addition, it should be noted that the loss of GDP is the GDP without deducting the cost of pollution. If you consider the green GDP, these losses will be greatly reduced.
If we consider the social costs brought about by the rapid development of China's energy system, including energy security costs, the costs of expanding international markets, and environmental costs, the effect of energy tax collection will become more apparent.
However, Jiang Kejun's timetable is to wait for the introduction of the fuel tax. According to government plans, the fuel tax will be introduced during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period.
Arguing on the premise of marketization of energy prices
From the perspective of international experience, the collection of energy tax has two main purposes. One is to adjust the energy use structure, and the excessive increase of energy demand is suppressed by price leverage. In addition, the collection of energy tax objectively increases the government’s fiscal revenue. This will expand the country's investment in energy conservation.
However, the big difference between China and other countries that implement energy taxes is that China’s market-oriented reforms in the energy sector are not yet complete, and energy prices are not determined in accordance with the principle of marketization.
Therefore, some scholars believe that it is of little significance to implement an energy tax before the market-oriented reform of energy prices is completed.
Ni Jianjun, director of the World Economic Situation Analysis Office of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, told reporters that at present, domestic energy prices are facing upward pressure due to the persistently high international energy prices. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to examine the need for a What kind of path is chosen to achieve this price upward adjustment? “In the long run, we should choose a path that can make oil prices more volatile, that is, promote market-oriented energy price reforms.â€
Ni Jianjun believes that "if there is no marketization reform in the energy sector, there will be no essential difference between simply raising the price of energy through the levy of energy tax and directly escalating energy prices through administrative means by the National Development and Reform Commission." "At present, China's energy sector is facing The problem is not only the issue of energy price adjustment, but also the cultivation of market competition players in the energy sector and the construction of competition mechanisms are still not perfect."
In response, Guan Qingyou, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Research Center of Tsinghua University, agrees: “Once the levy of energy tax becomes a reality, the corresponding mechanism is that the mechanism for the formation of energy prices must shift from the current administrative control to marketization.†Otherwise, Energy tax has little significance.
Jiang Kezhen told this reporter that adjustment of energy prices through energy taxes and direct price adjustments by the government through administrative means are two different price formation mechanisms. Moreover, the price adjustment of administrative means not only can increase prices but also can lower prices. The state's upward adjustment of refined oil prices through administrative means is a passive choice under the condition of continuous rise in international oil prices."
In Jiang Kejun's view, the logic of the country's special attention to energy tax is more inclined to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction.
“To achieve the 20% energy saving target, China must use four economic levers: fiscal, taxation, price, and finance. In taxation leverage, China needs to study and establish an energy tax and start fuel tax as soon as possible.†The same is the energy of the National Development and Reform Commission. The researcher Zhou Fuqiu has said publicly.
In addition, Jiang Keji stated in his own article that in terms of China’s overall fiscal revenue, the share of future energy-related taxes is relatively small. According to the energy tax rate considered in the study, the total tax revenue by 2030 is about 500 billion yuan, which is estimated to be about 5% of the total tax revenue at that time.
According to the forecast made by the United States Energy Foundation and the National Development and Reform Commission, from 2005 to 2020, China will need 18 trillion yuan in energy investment, of which energy conservation, new energy, and environmental protection will require 7 trillion yuan.
Recently, Jiang Keji, director of the Energy System Analysis and Market Analysis Research Center of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, disclosed that the research report on energy tax has been completed. This study carries out the impact of energy taxation on China's economic development from quantitative and qualitative aspects. The analysis shows that the levy of energy tax has a very significant inhibitory effect on future energy demand, but it has limited impact on the Chinese economy.
The report, entitled "Research on China's Energy Tax System Design and Implementation Plan," was jointly completed by the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, and Tsinghua University. The project was launched in 2005 and Jiang Kejun is the project leader.
In his recent article titled "Energy tax will not affect China's economic development," Jiang Keji said that under the current development situation, it is imperative to levy energy tax as a very effective way to curb energy demand. To a considerable extent, it can promote the healthier development of China's economy.
However, the introduction of a specific timetable for energy tax may not be optimistic. One of the reasons is that, as a kind of energy tax, the fuel tax reform is still difficult to produce after 14 years.
Jiang Kejun suggested that the implementation of the energy tax policy can be started 4-5 years after the implementation of the fuel tax, "so that we can collect more energy types based on experience in fuel tax collection."
In addition, there is much debate over whether the levy of energy taxes is based on the market-based reform of energy prices. The market-oriented reform of China's energy prices, because the current market competition in the energy sector is not perfect, and the cultivation of new market players takes time, so when will be completed is not optimistic.
Energy tax has limited impact on China's economy
According to Jiang Kejun, the energy tax (also known as energy consumption tax) is a tax on energy use levied on energy consumers.
Specifically, it focuses on the taxation of energy in fossil fuels. By imposing an energy tax, the price of high-energy-consuming products (mainly fossil fuels) and products harmful to the environment will increase, leading to a decrease in the consumption of such products. This will serve the purpose of curbing fossil energy consumption and further reducing the use of fossil fuels to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Considering that energy consumers are more dispersed, energy tax will be paid by energy production companies. The object of taxation is energy production enterprises, such as coal, petroleum, electricity, and natural gas industries. Imported energy is collected at the customs.
In an interview with the media, Jiang Kezhen once said that the original intention of the energy tax design was to allow environmental harmers to take into account the social costs of their activities and include them in private costs. The purpose of promoting energy saving and emission reduction is achieved through price levers.
The analysis results of the study show that the levy of energy taxes has a very significant inhibitory effect on China's future energy demand. When the tax rate is 50 yuan/ton of standard coal, the energy demand will decrease by 6.3%, with an energy saving of 126 million tons of standard coal. When the tax rate is 120 yuan/ton of standard coal, the energy demand will decrease by 16.2%, saving about 400 million tons of energy. Standard coal.
Of course, the levy of energy taxes will also have a negative impact on GDP. However, the quantitative analysis concluded that "the impact is quite limited."
Assuming that an energy tax will be collected in 2010, the tax rate will be 50 yuan/ton of standard coal, compared with no taxation, the GDP loss will be 0.4%. This is mainly due to the increase in energy prices led to the suppression of the relevant economic sectors and the decline in the output value of the energy industry.
However, these figures did not fully consider the role of China in reducing the import promotion of the economy, as well as reducing domestic investment in the energy industry and increasing the substitution effect of investment in some emerging industries.
Jiang Kejian believes that if these effects are taken into account, the loss of GDP will be very limited, or it will have a positive effect. At the same time, from the perspective of GDP growth, there is basically no change.
In addition, it should be noted that the loss of GDP is the GDP without deducting the cost of pollution. If you consider the green GDP, these losses will be greatly reduced.
If we consider the social costs brought about by the rapid development of China's energy system, including energy security costs, the costs of expanding international markets, and environmental costs, the effect of energy tax collection will become more apparent.
However, Jiang Kejun's timetable is to wait for the introduction of the fuel tax. According to government plans, the fuel tax will be introduced during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period.
Arguing on the premise of marketization of energy prices
From the perspective of international experience, the collection of energy tax has two main purposes. One is to adjust the energy use structure, and the excessive increase of energy demand is suppressed by price leverage. In addition, the collection of energy tax objectively increases the government’s fiscal revenue. This will expand the country's investment in energy conservation.
However, the big difference between China and other countries that implement energy taxes is that China’s market-oriented reforms in the energy sector are not yet complete, and energy prices are not determined in accordance with the principle of marketization.
Therefore, some scholars believe that it is of little significance to implement an energy tax before the market-oriented reform of energy prices is completed.
Ni Jianjun, director of the World Economic Situation Analysis Office of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, told reporters that at present, domestic energy prices are facing upward pressure due to the persistently high international energy prices. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to examine the need for a What kind of path is chosen to achieve this price upward adjustment? “In the long run, we should choose a path that can make oil prices more volatile, that is, promote market-oriented energy price reforms.â€
Ni Jianjun believes that "if there is no marketization reform in the energy sector, there will be no essential difference between simply raising the price of energy through the levy of energy tax and directly escalating energy prices through administrative means by the National Development and Reform Commission." "At present, China's energy sector is facing The problem is not only the issue of energy price adjustment, but also the cultivation of market competition players in the energy sector and the construction of competition mechanisms are still not perfect."
In response, Guan Qingyou, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Research Center of Tsinghua University, agrees: “Once the levy of energy tax becomes a reality, the corresponding mechanism is that the mechanism for the formation of energy prices must shift from the current administrative control to marketization.†Otherwise, Energy tax has little significance.
Jiang Kezhen told this reporter that adjustment of energy prices through energy taxes and direct price adjustments by the government through administrative means are two different price formation mechanisms. Moreover, the price adjustment of administrative means not only can increase prices but also can lower prices. The state's upward adjustment of refined oil prices through administrative means is a passive choice under the condition of continuous rise in international oil prices."
In Jiang Kejun's view, the logic of the country's special attention to energy tax is more inclined to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction.
“To achieve the 20% energy saving target, China must use four economic levers: fiscal, taxation, price, and finance. In taxation leverage, China needs to study and establish an energy tax and start fuel tax as soon as possible.†The same is the energy of the National Development and Reform Commission. The researcher Zhou Fuqiu has said publicly.
In addition, Jiang Keji stated in his own article that in terms of China’s overall fiscal revenue, the share of future energy-related taxes is relatively small. According to the energy tax rate considered in the study, the total tax revenue by 2030 is about 500 billion yuan, which is estimated to be about 5% of the total tax revenue at that time.
According to the forecast made by the United States Energy Foundation and the National Development and Reform Commission, from 2005 to 2020, China will need 18 trillion yuan in energy investment, of which energy conservation, new energy, and environmental protection will require 7 trillion yuan.
Medical Gauze Swab,Sterile Cotton Swab,Medical Cotton Swab,Surgical Cotton Swabs
Henan Zhongjian Medical Equipment Co., Ltd. , https://www.hnzjmedical.com