In 2011, the global nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer market ended with an anklet. For the new year, the adverse impact of the global economic environment on the fertilizer industry will not disappear immediately, but the Swiss bank group, an internationally renowned asset management agency, is optimistic about potash and believes that potash and corn prices will remain high in the new year. .
Before October, stimulated by the prices of various agricultural products such as cereals, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables, the farmers’ enthusiasm for planting increased, the planting area was increased, and the amount of fertilizers was increased, so that the demand for the international fertilizer market was strong. Since January, the nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium markets have seen the best development momentum since 2008. The CIF price of China's potash fertilizer contracts rose by 15%. The long game between Indian and potash producers also ended with the failure of India. This gave manufacturers more confidence. Since then, prices of various fertilizers have been on the rise until mid-November.
Affected by the European debt crisis and the stagflation of agricultural product prices, fertilizer buyers began to adopt a cautious attitude. In addition, the stocks of various countries are relatively large, the demand for global fertilizers has declined, and the price has also been stable to fall. Under the influence of buying up and down, Thailand, which has sent the market with great hope, has not taken any actions to supplement the inventory destroyed by the flood. Until November, the CIS phosphate fertilizer producers took the lead in lowering the price of existing contract prices in India, bringing the price reduction of international phosphate fertilizers to a peak.
After India realized the price reduction of the diammonium contract, it also requested the potash supplier to lower the price of the existing contract, and exert pressure on it. The result was rejected by the potash producer, because the manufacturer had full confidence in the potash fertilizer market.
Potash Corp., one of the world’s major potash producers, has been optimistic about the potash market since early 2011 and its attitude has remained unshakeable. While insisting on not declining prices, it has also filed a formal application with the Israeli government to increase its holding of another major potash fertilizer producer. The share of Israel Chemical Industry Group (ICL) increased from the current 13.9% to 25%. Industry insiders expect that adding potassium will pay up to 1.38 billion U.S. dollars for this 11.1% stake.
Looking at the situation of India, the main importer of potash, due to price stagnation, it was not until mid-2011 that it signed a large contract of the year, and the price was higher than China's. This is an unexpected situation in India. Statistics from India show that due to the suspension of potash fertilizer imports in the country from May to August 2011, the retail price of potash rose from April to November, and sales increased by 46% compared with the same period of last year. In November 2011, potash stocks in the country were only 69,000 tons, compared with 239,000 tons in the same period of 2010. By the end of December 2011, the volume of potash reached this year was 2 million tons, compared with 2.75 million tons in the previous year. In other words, India currently has "serious shortages" of potash.
While the suppliers of potash stabilized at Diaoyutai, UBS Group stated in its latest 2012 Commodity Outlook report that, despite its overall neutral position on commodity investment next year, it is optimistic about including crude oil and potash. The "tight supply" of commodities. UBS expects that despite the worsening demand outlook, commodities with continued tight supply will perform better. They are optimistic about hot coal, corn, potash and crude oil.
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