The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan (METI) announced in its recently released "Future Trends in Global Supply and Demand for Petrochemical Products " forecast report that Asia's strong demand for propylene derivatives before 2016 will lead to supply shortages, but the global balance between supply and demand will be balanced.
According to the study, the global production of propylene derivatives will increase from 77.6 million tons (propylene equivalent) in 2010 to 97.1 million tons in 2016, a net increase of 19.5 million tons; the global demand for propylene derivatives is expected to increase by 21.7 million tons in 2010. The 74.9 million tons (propylene equivalent) increased to 96.6 million tons in 2016. The supply surplus narrowed from 2.7 million tons in 2010 to 500,000 tons in 2016, and production and demand basically balanced.
According to the report, propylene derivatives in Asia will change from a surplus of 600,000 tons in 2010 to a 2.5 million tons shortage in 2016, of which China’s supply shortage will increase from 4.4 million tons to 6.6 million tons while India’s supply will change from a surplus of 200,000 tons. The supply shortage is 500,000 tons. During the same period, Europe will expand from a shortage of 500,000 tons to 1.6 million tons. Propylene derivatives in the Americas continue to maintain an oversupply of 900,000 tons, and the supply surplus in the Middle East will increase from 3.6 million tons to 5.4 million tons.
Judging from the supply and demand relationship in Asia and the Middle East, there will still be an excess of 2.9 million tons of propylene derivatives after the trade balance between Asia and the Middle East in 2016.
According to the current capacity expansion plan, the production capacity of propylene derivatives in Asia will increase from 40 million tons in 2010 to 49 million tons in 2016, of which polypropylene capacity will increase by 7.9 million tons, acrylonitrile will increase by 400,000 tons, and others will increase by 600,000 tons. . During the period, the production capacity of propylene derivatives in the Middle East will increase by 1.8 million tons, of which polypropylene production capacity will increase by 1.4 million tons, acrylonitrile will increase by 200,000 tons, and others will increase by 200,000 tons.
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