Jia Xinguang: Auto Industry "Joint Venture Dependence" is Self-healing

Mazda gradually withdrew from Ford’s desire to seek autonomy in the Chinese market; Fiat entered China for the second time to form a new joint venture with GAC; from Shanghai Auto Group’s holding of Shanghai General Motors shares, and then to participate in the re-IPO of GM, to GAC’s acquisition of Changfeng and Mitsubishi’s full joint venture... ... The domestic auto market in 2010 showed a new joint venture situation. The reason for this is the result of major changes in both the international auto industry and the market structure. Another result of this change is that multinational companies need to make more efforts to achieve new breakthroughs in China.

Under the impact of the financial crisis, the international automobile industry has undergone major changes in the pattern - on the one hand, GM bankruptcy, Ford's sale of Volvo, Land Rover and other brands have occurred during the crisis; on the other hand, Fiat-Chrysler has formed a new alliance. Volkswagen acquired a new cooperative relationship such as a 19.9% ​​stake in Suzuki for US$2.5 billion.

Due to the increasingly fierce competition in the auto market, the development cost of auto products has become increasingly high, and the degree of auto outsourcing and the demand for economies of scale have become higher and higher. In the 1980s, a report from Columbia University in the United States held that the lowest critical value (lowest volume) for measuring the economies of scale in the automotive industry was 600,000 units in the mid-1950s, 1 million units in the mid-60s, and 2 million units in the late 1970s. . In 2010, it will need 5 million to 6 million vehicles.

Fiat CEO Malchone made it very clear: “If you need to maintain profitability, then you need to produce at least 5.5 million to 6 million vehicles a year. This is not to emphasize the importance of production, but to emphasize the size of this output to match The importance of structure throughout the company.Fiat's current production capacity is not half of this number (about 2.2 million vehicles in 2008. We are not the only one not up to standard, so anyway, we need new cooperation alliance."

Let's take a look at the major changes in the world auto market landscape. The European and American markets have always been the focus of the global automotive industry. In the most prosperous period, the two major markets add up to nearly 40 million vehicles, accounting for two-thirds of the global market. But in the last decade, this pattern has undergone major changes, especially the rapid development of the Chinese automotive market. In 2009, the Chinese auto market had a market share of more than 20% in the world. In 2010, it exceeded the highest annual sales volume in the United States. After 10 years, it may surpass the sum of European and American markets.

Akuda Okuda, former president of Japan’s Toyota Corp., said: “China has a very important position in the future overseas business of Toyota Motor Corporation.”

Due to the rapid growth of China's auto market, the cooperation pattern of multinational companies is constantly adjusted. For example, the cooperation between PSA and Changan has attempted to break the long-running joint venture deadlock to achieve the PSA global goal. This cooperation has also played a catalytic role in the Shenlong project. The most representative example is the establishment of Shenlong's new medium-term plan; However, Mazda’s Chinese route has always been vague. As Ford was in a fragile period, Mazda gained valuable independent opportunities and he also established a closer cooperative relationship with FAW; Suzuki is also trying hard to re-do it. The Chinese puzzle; Fiat after a painful break, he chose Guangqi as his new partner and his intention was to make a comeback; Mitsubishi and Chrysler were still exploring the new path to communism...

Under the current industrial policy system, multinational companies need to make more efforts to make new breakthroughs. The first is to adjust the relationship between new and old partners, and to better match models, technology, and human resources. Secondly, the government is increasingly pressing for independent research and development. Transnational companies have begun to establish more R&D bases in China and even independently develop models. The third is that the sinking of the sales network is a long-term project that needs constant advancement.

At the same time, it must be noted that the focus of the development of domestic large groups will increasingly tilt toward independent brands and independent research and development, and the dependence on joint ventures will gradually weaken. Therefore, the space for new joint ventures of multinational companies is getting smaller and smaller. getting bigger.

As the market growth slows down, the government will increase the reorganization of the domestic auto industry. Some weak companies in the Chinese auto industry may be merged and merged. This will also have some impact on the original joint venture, so there will be new ones. The situation arises.