At present, the supply of acrylonitrile in the supply market is increasing. Coupled with the arrival of the “double festival†holiday, the demand is even weaker. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and bullishness is difficult to accumulate. Acrylonitrile market is difficult to break through the narrow range of recent shocks, or there will be a slight drop.
Sufficient supply of acrylonitrile At present, the operating rates of acrylonitrile units such as Shanghai SECCO, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical are all at 100%. Jilin Petrochemical's acrylonitrile was launched on the September 7th propylene production line, with an annual production capacity of 420,000 tons. Around 70%, the supply in the domestic market has increased. At the same time as Japan's Asahi Kasei restores its spot supply, the port's spot resources continue to increase, putting pressure on the market price of acrylonitrile. The willingness of businessmen to negotiate gradually weakened, the sentiment of shipments deteriorated, the wait-and-see atmosphere of buyers increased, and trading was weak. The mainstream quotation of East China Port fell to 17500-17,600 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction was still low. Due to the strong demand for acrylamide, the Shandong market has remained stable, barely supporting the acrylonitrile market to stabilize. As the profits of acrylonitrile are still high, the cost of downstream transfer is harder, the resistance is strong, and the negative factors of all parties are negative. The trend of the market is not optimistic.
Sustained weakness in upstream support In the event of a leak in an imported crude oil pipeline in Illinois, the closure of an important pipeline from Canada to US crude oil refineries, international crude oil prices rose once, but the crude oil pipeline from Canada to the United States is scheduled to recover. After the news of the oil transmission, international oil prices began to fall rapidly again. In order to prevent the Japanese Yen exchange rate from rising further, Japan’s Ministry of Finance’s intervening foreign exchange market for the 15th was affected by this, and the dollar’s ​​gains were significant, while crude oil was under pressure. Although the recent decline in international crude oil prices is unlikely, but the market's distressed situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the acrylonitrile market is also difficult to get out of the independent market.
The raw material propylene has become weaker. The bad market will suppress the atmosphere of the propylene market, and coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Market participants will have to retreat from the market for a holiday, and the trading floor will tend to be light. At present, there is a large profit margin for downstream propylene oxide manufacturers. Even if the price of propylene declines, it will not affect production profits. In the absence of a decline in the start of the propylene oxide plant, the manufacturers will maintain on-demand purchases, which will have limited impact on the propylene market. At present, the procurement of propylene by powder manufacturers is close to the upside down level. Therefore, during the fall of its price, it will increase the high price of propylene on the market, and does not rule out pulling the propylene market to follow the downward trend. Propylene market is stable and bearish in the short term, so it can't form a pull-up effect on the acrylonitrile market.
Downstream demand continues to slump At present, the acrylic fiber market is sluggish, and the overall domestic load of acrylic fiber plants is in the middle. The operating rate is only around 70%. Hangzhou Bay acrylic line currently operates 4 lines with a load of 80%; Fushun's acrylic line starts from September 1st, down from 70% to 50%; planned for overhaul; Jilin Chemical Fiber's Qifeng and Jimeng's acrylic units have recently begun to open . At present, the domestic acrylic fiber market is in the traditional off-season, the market demand is sluggish, and the sales situation is gloomy; due to the high price, traders are cautious about purchasing; at this stage, the price of substitute polyester is lower than that of acrylic fiber; the cost advantage is obvious; Some acrylic manufacturers are faced with production cuts, the overall start-up is in the middle and low positions, and the inventory pressure is relatively high, which makes it difficult to form a support for the acrylonitrile market.
Another major downstream product, ABS production, is not too tepid. The operating rate of the equipment is maintained at about 80%, and the supply of the enterprise is normal. The lack of speculation hotspots in the ABS market, coupled with the impact of limited electricity in the downstream product industries and energy conservation and emission reductions, has reduced the demand for upstream products. Under the favorable conditions of favorable and bearish performance, the mainstream prices of ABS companies will remain consolidating, so propylene The nitrile market is difficult to perform well.
To sum up, the acrylonitrile market will have a slight downward trend under multiple pressures with sufficient supply, uneconomic economic conditions, and no significant improvement in downstream demand. The recent market is difficult to achieve great results. The market may change in mid-October.
Sufficient supply of acrylonitrile At present, the operating rates of acrylonitrile units such as Shanghai SECCO, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical are all at 100%. Jilin Petrochemical's acrylonitrile was launched on the September 7th propylene production line, with an annual production capacity of 420,000 tons. Around 70%, the supply in the domestic market has increased. At the same time as Japan's Asahi Kasei restores its spot supply, the port's spot resources continue to increase, putting pressure on the market price of acrylonitrile. The willingness of businessmen to negotiate gradually weakened, the sentiment of shipments deteriorated, the wait-and-see atmosphere of buyers increased, and trading was weak. The mainstream quotation of East China Port fell to 17500-17,600 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction was still low. Due to the strong demand for acrylamide, the Shandong market has remained stable, barely supporting the acrylonitrile market to stabilize. As the profits of acrylonitrile are still high, the cost of downstream transfer is harder, the resistance is strong, and the negative factors of all parties are negative. The trend of the market is not optimistic.
Sustained weakness in upstream support In the event of a leak in an imported crude oil pipeline in Illinois, the closure of an important pipeline from Canada to US crude oil refineries, international crude oil prices rose once, but the crude oil pipeline from Canada to the United States is scheduled to recover. After the news of the oil transmission, international oil prices began to fall rapidly again. In order to prevent the Japanese Yen exchange rate from rising further, Japan’s Ministry of Finance’s intervening foreign exchange market for the 15th was affected by this, and the dollar’s ​​gains were significant, while crude oil was under pressure. Although the recent decline in international crude oil prices is unlikely, but the market's distressed situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the acrylonitrile market is also difficult to get out of the independent market.
The raw material propylene has become weaker. The bad market will suppress the atmosphere of the propylene market, and coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Market participants will have to retreat from the market for a holiday, and the trading floor will tend to be light. At present, there is a large profit margin for downstream propylene oxide manufacturers. Even if the price of propylene declines, it will not affect production profits. In the absence of a decline in the start of the propylene oxide plant, the manufacturers will maintain on-demand purchases, which will have limited impact on the propylene market. At present, the procurement of propylene by powder manufacturers is close to the upside down level. Therefore, during the fall of its price, it will increase the high price of propylene on the market, and does not rule out pulling the propylene market to follow the downward trend. Propylene market is stable and bearish in the short term, so it can't form a pull-up effect on the acrylonitrile market.
Downstream demand continues to slump At present, the acrylic fiber market is sluggish, and the overall domestic load of acrylic fiber plants is in the middle. The operating rate is only around 70%. Hangzhou Bay acrylic line currently operates 4 lines with a load of 80%; Fushun's acrylic line starts from September 1st, down from 70% to 50%; planned for overhaul; Jilin Chemical Fiber's Qifeng and Jimeng's acrylic units have recently begun to open . At present, the domestic acrylic fiber market is in the traditional off-season, the market demand is sluggish, and the sales situation is gloomy; due to the high price, traders are cautious about purchasing; at this stage, the price of substitute polyester is lower than that of acrylic fiber; the cost advantage is obvious; Some acrylic manufacturers are faced with production cuts, the overall start-up is in the middle and low positions, and the inventory pressure is relatively high, which makes it difficult to form a support for the acrylonitrile market.
Another major downstream product, ABS production, is not too tepid. The operating rate of the equipment is maintained at about 80%, and the supply of the enterprise is normal. The lack of speculation hotspots in the ABS market, coupled with the impact of limited electricity in the downstream product industries and energy conservation and emission reductions, has reduced the demand for upstream products. Under the favorable conditions of favorable and bearish performance, the mainstream prices of ABS companies will remain consolidating, so propylene The nitrile market is difficult to perform well.
To sum up, the acrylonitrile market will have a slight downward trend under multiple pressures with sufficient supply, uneconomic economic conditions, and no significant improvement in downstream demand. The recent market is difficult to achieve great results. The market may change in mid-October.
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