New economic stimulus plan does not appear as expected
On April 11, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who was on a visit to Thailand, responded to reporters' questions as to whether there would be further stimulus for the introduction of economic policies. He said that at present it is imperative to step up implementation of the various policies and measures of the package plan while closely monitoring changes in domestic and international economic conditions. New response plan.
As soon as the remarks came out, the domestic financial media highlighted the contents of “closely tracking changes in the economic situation at home and abroad and formulating new solutions†in Premier Wen's speech. The news about the forthcoming round of economic stimulus plans of the Chinese government is also floating. Out of the water, and even media predict that the economic stimulus plan will be announced on the 15th, but the program did not appear as guessing.
In fact, in terms of general laws, such important policies as economic stimulus programs involve a wide range of important trade-offs. In the first quarter, the national economic operation data are important indicators that need to be referenced before the introduction of policies. After the release of important economic data, civil society expects higher central government policies.
Four important economic data are concerned
In the first quarter, many important economic data had been reported to the newspapers, and the data disclosed at the press conference was still noticed. According to the statistics of the previous press conferences of the Statistics Bureau, the four major economic data are expected to receive special attention at today’s press conference.
Undoubtedly, the most noticeable is the gross domestic product of the first quarter. In the context of the financial crisis, whether China's economic ship can continue its steady start this year, this figure must be the heaviest indicator. The previously announced annual gross domestic product for 2008 was 3006.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% over the previous year. From a quarterly perspective, the growth rate was 10.6% in the first quarter of 2008, 10.1% in the second quarter, 9.0% in the third quarter, and 6.8% in the fourth quarter. Some analysts are not optimistic about the growth rate of GDP in the first quarter of this year, and even predict that the first quarter GDP growth has just reached 6%. Whether or not the real situation is as predictable, it also surprises everyone, and it will be announced at this conference.
The second aspect is urban investment in fixed assets. In January-February this year, the investment in urban fixed assets was 10276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%. Among them, state-owned and state-owned holdings completed investment of 448.6 billion yuan, an increase of 35.6%; real estate development completed investments of 239.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.0%. Whether the data for the first three months of the year can continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate remains to be revealed.
The third aspect is the amount of profits realized by industrial enterprises above designated size in the country. This indicator, which directly reflects the status of industrial operations, is undoubtedly of great value in judging the operation of the Chinese economy under the financial crisis. In the January-February this year, national industrial enterprises above designated size realized profits of 219.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 37.3%. Coupled with the figures for March, whether the overall economy in the first quarter improved compared with the previous two months was also a matter of concern.
The final point of view is the total retail sales of consumer goods. The important measure taken by the Chinese government to deal with the crisis is to expand domestic demand and ensure growth through consumption. Whether the consumption situation is consistent with the government's expectations, the total retail sales of consumer goods is one of the more critical indicators. In January-February this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The overall consumption situation in the first quarter is equally expected.
From the analysis of many economic experts before this, the Chinese economy has turned around in hope. Some experts pointed out that the good news of the economy has been very clear, including that the leading indices of various institutions at home and abroad have shown a good trend. The Chinese economy has indeed survived the most difficult period. Whether or not the turning point is exactly what the above-mentioned experts say, it is expected that the important data released today will give everyone new confidence.
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