Is it difficult for wheat to cut prices due to poor weather conditions?

　　 Is it difficult for wheat to cut prices due to poor weather conditions?

There is still another month for wheat to enter the harvesting acquisition period. What is the trend of wheat prices this year?

Since last month, wheat prices have continued to rise, making the market's grassroots acquisitions and flour companies all stumbled. So far, there has been no sign of a slight decline in prices. Although the current market for wheat grain continues to be tight, the National Reserve has not released any strong signals to regulate prices. So, will wheat continue to maintain this price-friendly situation?

Food business psychology: not cheap

This year, the new Maiku Rong will be very nervous, and the contradiction between storage and storage is outstanding. Especially in Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu and other places, especially the pressure of tight storage. The relevant person in charge of the National Grain Bureau said at a press conference a few days ago that in areas with major summer grain production areas and food shortages, priority will be given to selling their stocks, making as much room as possible and acquiring new food.

Industry insiders confirmed that only a few hundred companies in Hebei and Shandong have been included in this year's new season wheat storage and storage units. It is conceivable that the state attaches great importance to the new wheat harvest this year.

After experiencing the wheat price roller coaster last year, it is clear that the purchasing psychology of this year is a little more cautious for the grain traders. The psychological expectation of not being cheap is gradually affecting the enthusiasm of the whole industry for the acquisition of new season wheat. So, will the price of wheat fall as the buyer wants?

The weather is not good, will wheat increase due to production cuts?

It is understood that the local wheat has begun to be released in 2015, and the price of wheat on the market is difficult to increase, which is relatively stable.

In May, the main wheat producing area is in the critical period of production formation. Under the background of the diurnal weather conditions and the complex situation of wheat seedlings, what is the winter wheat yield this year? Will it be as reported in the Ministry of Agriculture’s report that China’s wheat may have been reduced in production for 12 years this year? In addition, due to the domestic economic environment and the relatively weak supply and demand fundamentals of the wheat market, after the new wheat market, there may be a rise in the price of the national reserve market and the decline in the price of the national reserve.

Analysis of the market price of new season wheat

According to the purchase price of the national temporary reserve market for wheat this year, which was announced last year, it is 1.18 yuan/kg. From the preparations for the new season wheat storage and storage that the country has already started, it is inevitable that the country will start the market this year. .

Judging from the current market price of wheat, the price of the new season wheat is difficult to fall before the official listing, because the surplus of grain in the hands of farmers is basically hollowed out, and the subsequent listing of Chen wheat will remain low. It is difficult for enterprises to establish Chen Mai. Stock.

According to the current policy auction, although the storage has been stressed, the price of the stock has been at a high level, and there is no market for the store, indicating that the policy support for wheat prices is very strong.

It is expected that when the new wheat is listed, the grassroots grain will adopt a cautious acquisition due to the fluctuation of wheat thriller prices last year. It is understood that the industry insiders said that this year's psychological purchase price is 1.1-1.15 yuan / kg, then the purchase price of hawkers to farmers may be lower than 1.1 yuan / kg, according to the current market purchase price of 1.22 yuan / kg See, the sales psychology of farmers will be hit hard, the willingness to sell will not be high, and the price will also deviate from the market price set by the state.

Market shortage of wheat

It is expected that the wheat market will have the principle of buying and selling the “corner price” of the corn type. Because we can only look at the supply and demand data, the overall supply of wheat stocks is still "high", but the supply of high-quality wheat is not sufficient. Milling companies generally reflect that the current supply of Pumai is not in short supply, but high-quality wheat with good quality and sufficient quantity is very good. Although individual grain depots also store a certain amount of high-quality wheat, but a large amount of ordinary wheat is blended, such mixed wheat does not meet the procurement standards of the milling enterprises, and it is difficult to flow to the market to meet the needs of the milling enterprises.