The World Bank’s just-released global economic outlook report predicts that the global economy will maintain a solid pace of growth under the leadership of developing countries; however, soaring food prices and the possibility of high oil prices are once again high and high-income countries are in crisis. Factors such as fiscal and debt difficulties still facing may still threaten the growth of the global economy.
According to U.S. media reports, Lin Yifu, chief economist of the World Bank, said at a recent update of the global economic outlook report on June 7 that the global economy will remain strong for the next three years after achieving 3.8% growth last year. The pace of growth. He said: "We expect that the overall world economy will have a growth rate of 3.2% in 2011 and will reach 3.6% in 2012 and 2013."
From this report, it can be seen that developing countries are still the driving force of global economic growth; while growth in high-income countries remains weak. The report predicts that high-income countries will grow at a rate of 2.2% this year; 2012 and 2013 will have growth rates of 2.6% and 2.7%.
The Global Economic Outlook Report says that the global financial crisis is no longer the main factor affecting the pace of economic activity in developing countries; most developing countries have already, or nearly reached, their full level of economic activity. Therefore, the report believes that the specific country's production efficiency and industry factors have become the dominant factor in current growth.
The report suggests that developing countries need to shift their macroeconomic policies to intensify production efficiency in the medium term, handle inflationary pressures, and re-establish the fiscal and monetary bases that help them settle the crisis.
World Bank economist Andrew Burns said at the report’s press conference: “They (developing countries) need to reorient themselves and create conditions for strong growth in the future. They have experienced strong growth over the past 10 years. Because of this growth, there is, of course, reason to believe that they will continue to grow rapidly. To achieve this goal, they now need to shift their fiscal and monetary positions toward neutral policies."
This report still highlights a series of risks that global economic growth may face. Lin Yifu, chief economist at the World Bank, said: “But some risk factors still threaten the global outlook. They include rising food prices, renewed oil prices, and still existing fiscal and sovereign debt problems in some countries.â€
The Outlook report stated that although food and oil prices are expected to stabilize, the supply situation remains tense.
The report pointed out that the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and North Africa may threaten global growth; if oil prices rise sharply and remain at high levels, whether because of increasing uncertainties or disrupted oil supply, global economic growth may decrease by approximately 0.5. Percentage.
In addition, the report warns that if food inflows occur in 2011 and 2012, or because oil prices rise again significantly, they will lead to higher domestic food prices in developing countries. The consequence will be a large number of people falling into poverty.
The outlook report also emphasized that the lingering financial sustainability problems of high-income countries and rising sovereign debt will pose medium-term challenges for many OECD countries.
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