China has made solemn promises to the world at the Copenhagen conference: First, by 2020, non-fossil energy accounts for about 15% of primary energy consumption. Second, by 2020, the intensity of CO2 emission per unit of GDP will fall by 40%-45% compared with 2005.
Whether or not such emission reduction targets can be achieved, the implementation of the "12th Five-Year Plan" of energy is undoubtedly the key.
“In 2015, the goal of coal accounting for 63% of the energy structure, which is 7 percentage points lower in 5 years, and natural gas growth from 3.9% to 8.3%, more than doubled, it is still more difficult.†Xiamen University Energy Lin Boqiang, director of the Center for Economic Research, said.
The development of natural gas is still affected by two major factors: market and cost.
Lin Boqiang analyzed that China's natural gas has four major supply lines and the current supply pressure is relatively small, but to maintain this growth rate, the annual demand for natural gas should maintain a growth rate of about 20%. "Is it possible to maintain this growth rate? This is a question," Lin Boqiang said.
In addition, natural gas development is also constrained by cost factors. The cost of foreign natural gas is about twice that of China. Even if domestic natural gas prices are raised, foreign natural gas is still 60%-70% higher than domestic natural gas. "With the dramatic increase in the supply of natural gas abroad, the use of natural gas will bring great cost pressures." Lin Boqiang said.
Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that different from the difficulties in guaranteeing the demand for natural gas and digesting the substantial increase in costs, hydropower and nuclear power are more subject to pressure from the construction period. The installation of solar energy and wind power is not a problem. The key is whether it can generate corresponding power generation capacity, whether it can achieve grid connection, whether power can be sent out, and whether it can be shipped out.
From a broader perspective, the biggest difference between the "12th Five-Year Plan" and the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" lies in the economic low-carbon transition.
Under the dual background of safeguarding national energy security and responding to global climate change, accelerating the transformation of energy development methods is undoubtedly the key to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†energy planning.
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