· Xu Changming: Super high-speed growth into history, 8-10% for ten years

Corresponding to the new normal of China's GDP growth rate of 7% in the future, the growth rate of passenger cars is basically maintained at 10%.
The joint venture still plays the role of “profit cow” in the group business; for the independent brand, the third and fourth-line market is probably the only way to seek a breakthrough.
Xu Changming, Director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center In 2015, in the face of more intense competition and the arrival of the “new normal” of the macro economy, how to build product strength has become a core topic inside and outside the automotive industry. With the 2014 financial report of domestic listed car companies, the “performance capability” has once again become a hot spot for all parties. In the enterprises that have announced the annual report and performance forecast, the profits of the independent sector have fallen sharply, which is an indisputable fact.
In this regard, the reporter interviewed Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center. He said that the automobile market is undergoing profound changes under the background of vigorous anti-corruption, deepening reform and economic slowdown. Ultra-high-speed growth has become a history, and the speed of 8%-10% of medium-to-high-speed growth will remain for about ten years.
Stepped potential will escort the "new normal"
In Xu Changming's view, with the background of vigorous anti-corruption, deepening reform, and economic slowdown, the automobile market is welcoming profound changes. Ultra-high-speed growth has become a history, and the speed of 8%-10% of medium-to-high-speed growth will remain for about ten years. Among them, the "13th Five-Year Plan" is about 10% per year, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" may drop to 8%.
Looking at the experience and laws of the world auto market, from the national level, there will be two periods of rapid growth, one is the period of rapid growth, or the period of super-high growth. This time period is relatively short, about 5 years, the annual growth rate of sales is about 30%, from five cars per thousand people to twenty cars per thousand people; the second period is steady and rapid growth. The growth rate is about 10 percentage points lower than the first period. It is from 20 cars per thousand people to 130 cars per thousand people. The duration is relatively long, about ten years. .
"In fact, starting from 2003, by 2009 and 2010, the growth rate should have been reduced, but the state has adopted a stimulus policy for the automobile industry, and sales have doubled in two years." Xu Changming said, "It was originally Those who bought a car in 2011, 2012 or even 2013 will buy in advance in 2009 and 2010. The growth rate from 2010 should be about 10%-12%, and it should be 8%-10% from now. The market trend will continue to be more intense competition."
After 30 years of reform and opening up in China, the income gap is relatively large, and there are obviously three economic development gradients in East, Central and West. From 2001 to 2008, the first rapid growth period was in the Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou circles. These three economic circles involved five or six provinces, which drove the rapid growth in 2008. The main growth during the period from 2009 to the present is in the central region, and in the next few years it is the western region.
Talking about the trend of the passenger car market this year, Xu Changming emphasized to reporters that the growth rate of passenger cars is basically maintained at 10% in response to the new normal of 7% GDP growth in the future. If it reaches 14% in the first half of this year, it may be related to the early release of panic buying, and this factor is a short-term situation for the auto market.
Independent losses "profit cows" rescue Jinbei car has long played the ST theme in the capital market, and the published results announcement last year confirmed this again. The company sold 80036 vehicles, down 20.3% year-on-year; realized operating income of 5.147 billion yuan, down 9.55% year-on-year, and a loss of 143 million yuan in 2014.
FAW Xiali is expected to lose 1.55 billion to 1.75 billion yuan last year. The decline in performance was mainly due to factors such as the escalation of consumption in the domestic automobile market and the continued rapid decline in the market share of the economy car. The pace of product structure upgrade adjustment has not been able to adapt to the rapid changes in the market. The sales of Xiali N3, N5 sedan and Weizhi V5 sedan decreased year-on-year, while the Xiali N7 products launched in 2013 did not reach the sales target. The production and sales scale decreased significantly year-on-year, and the main business incurred a large loss.
For the BAIC shares listed on the Hong Kong stock market last year, behind the first gorgeous performance, it is still the loss of the independent sector. The announcement shows that the annual sales volume of Beijing Auto's own brand “Beijing Brand” was 309,600 units, with a growth rate of over 50%. However, due to the late start of the Beijing brand business, there are still insufficient production capacity. In 2014, it continued to record operating losses and negative operating cash flow, but its main products have been converted from positive gross profit to positive gross profit in previous years. It has improved in 2013.
In contrast, the joint venture still plays the role of “profit cow” in the group business. Beijing Benz, Beijing Hyundai and Changan Ford are still the driving force behind the performance. Beiqi's announcement shows: "By benefiting from the improvement of business, Beijing Benz's total revenue increased by 77.9% year-on-year to reach 43.937 billion yuan, contributing 77.9% of the total revenue of listed companies."
According to the forecast released by Changan Automobile, the net profit in 2014 reached 3.5 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 111.09%-122.50% over the same period of 2013. The explosive growth of its net profit was mainly due to the profit contribution of its joint venture company Changan Ford.
According to the grim situation of the market, Xu Changming believes that for independent brands, the third and fourth-tier markets may be the only way to seek a breakthrough.

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