With the advancement of semiconductor lighting technology, LED lighting products have begun to enter the field of indoor lighting. LED lighting is considered to be the development trend of future lighting, and the huge market of indoor lighting is always affecting the hearts of the industry. Development is a process. How far is LED large-scale entry into the indoor lighting market? What stage will it go through? How should enterprises develop? In order to answer questions, we have communicated with many industry insiders, hoping to roughly describe the growth curve of the domestic LED indoor lighting market and provide reference for the industry.
2020 LED indoor lighting products market share can reach 50
For the domestic LED indoor lighting market, which is affected by many factors and is developing rapidly, it is difficult to accurately predict the market share of its products. Many people in the interview believe that the market share of LED indoor lighting may reach 10,2015 by 2012. The year may reach 30, and by 2020 it may reach 50. However, the results of the China Semiconductor Lighting Network's survey on the popularization of LED lighting show that many people are relatively optimistic. Osram related people believe that the market share of LED indoor lighting in 2020 may reach 80, and because of the huge design space of LED, in addition to the continuous expansion of the lighting market, it will also drive the development of related markets, and the overall market size is huge.
Although many indoor lighting products can be seen at present, many people in the industry think that as a new type of light source, the domestic LED indoor lighting market is still in its infancy, whether it is LED indoor lighting products or related technologies and specifications. The standards, the concept of consumers all need a certain amount of time to develop. At present, the technology and products of LED indoor lighting are not mature enough, and it is not suitable for large-scale promotion.
For the development stage of domestic LED indoor lighting, Zhang Li, executive vice president of Sichuan Xinli Light Source Co., Ltd. believes that LED indoor lighting is still in the technical preparation stage, and this stage may last for two to three years. After that, with the improvement of consumers' awareness of LED lighting products, the establishment of standards, standard systems, and maturity of production processes will enter the relatively mature stage of product promotion. With the recovery of the world economy after 2015, the consumer's economic endurance will be improved, and at the same time, due to the shortage of energy and the increase of electricity prices, it is expected that the promotion of LED indoor lighting products will be faster. By 2025, the market share of LED indoor lighting products may reach 70~80.
After 2014, LED bulb business opportunities will be quite strong. At present, domestic LED indoor lighting is mainly concentrated in decorative lighting, such as some entertainment venues, commercial lighting and public lighting, such as underground parking lots, star-rated hotel corridors, etc., which have not really entered the market. Ordinary home lighting. The main indoor lighting products are commercial fluorescent lamps, downlights, spotlights, bulbs for replacing incandescent lamps, and freezer lamps. Peng Wanhua, deputy head of the Semiconductor Lighting Technology Standards Working Group of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that according to plans for the development of LED indoor lighting in some foreign countries, it is expected that commercial lighting will be promoted from 2010 to 2012, and general lighting will be promoted from 2012 to 2015. Ordinary home lighting. From a technical point of view, the current quality of light, such as light color, is not very good, and household lighting has high requirements for light, so residential lighting should not be promoted in recent years.
As the development trend of future lighting, what is the process of LED entering the indoor lighting on a large scale? Among the many LED indoor lighting products, LED bulbs are one of the important forms. According to the research of the global lighting bulb market by the Industrial Research Institute, the bulb market is a traditional light source in the short term, at least until 2017, incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps and new light sources such as LED bulbs. LED bulbs still need to be replaced by various mainstream traditional and energy-saving light sources over a period of time. At present, LED bulbs are still in the market introduction stage. It is expected that the explosiveness of LED bulbs will be quite strong after 2014, and the demand will be led by fluorescent lamps and other light sources after 2018.
In general, the growth of LED bulbs in the lighting market can be roughly divided into three stages: incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps and energy-saving lamps will be the main source of bulb lighting before 2012, while LED prices are high, in the demonstration stage, mainly Replace the incandescent lamp. In 2012-2014, with the implementation of the global incandescent lamp ban, the incandescent lamps will gradually disappear in the market after 2012. At this stage, the energy-saving lamp market is expected to enter the peak growth period and will occupy a major share of the lighting market. However, it is expected that by 2014, LED bulbs will significantly replace incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps into maturity. At the same time, the cost of LED bulbs is declining. With the increasing number of LED manufacturers in recent years, the price will decline more quickly, and the LED market may be delayed by one to two years.
The prospects of the LED indoor lighting market are unquestionable. How should domestic companies wait for opportunities in the future market? At present, patents and technical research should be strengthened, and certain propaganda should be carried out to raise consumers' awareness of LEDs. According to Jiuzheng Building Materials Network, it is also necessary to promote standardization and standardization, and finally allow consumers to choose between 20~50 standard products instead of between thousands of standard products, otherwise consumers will not be able to find them. The replacement product is very troublesome. Zhang Liru said. The general manager of NVC Lighting Shanghai R&D Center said that in terms of enterprises, enterprises should strengthen their own research and development efforts and master more technologies with core competitiveness. Second, we must really calm down and do a good job. As a huge market for LED indoor lighting, it is impossible to cover everything. Shen Jinxiang, chairman and general manager of Zhejiang Shenghui Lighting Co., Ltd., said that whether it is a traditional lighting company or an LED lighting company, it is very important to find and play an advantage.
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