Who is responsible for the single-digit increase in the auto market this year?

According to the latest report from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's total car sales growth this year is no more than 3%, which is a drop from the previous forecast of about 5%. It is dwarfed by the 10% to 15% increase in the initial forecast for the first half of the year. I remember that at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year, bosses of major auto companies debated and most people supported the growth in the total sales of the auto market this year, which is still in double digits. Only a few schools believe that growth is only single-digit, but it is estimated that few people expect to Less than 5% increase.

Interestingly, while the overall sales volume is expected to continue to be lowered, the monthly increase of luxury cars is still making great strides. Although it was less than 60% monthly increase in the first half of the year, it still maintained a growth rate of around 30%. In the first nine months of this year, Mercedes-Benz increased 32.8% year-on-year, BMW's growth rate was as high as 45.7%, and Audi's number was large but the rate of increase was also 29.2%.

Since the luxury car market is booming, who will be responsible for the ever-decreasing total sales growth? Collective brand aphasia. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first nine months of this year, the overall growth rate of production and sales of the passenger vehicle market was 6.04% and 3.62% respectively; but the sales volume of self-owned brand passenger cars decreased by 0.08% year-on-year, far below the industry growth. Speed, the market share is also lower than the previous two years, accounting for 42.26% of total sales of passenger cars, down 3.09 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the market share of self-owned brand passenger cars in July was as low as 36.13%, a record low. Specifically, in addition to the limited number of Geely and the Great Wall, the market share of self-owned brands has lost ground.

In this regard, most of them believe that since the beginning of this year, the purchase tax reductions, the auto-to-countryside, the withdrawal of the old-for-new vehicle market stimulus policy, and the increase in fuel consumption standards for “energy-saving and subsidies for the people” in October have been the main reasons for the loss of self-owned brands. . There are also voices that joint venture brands have snatched their own brand share. Indeed, there is data to support this year's market share of Volkswagen, General Motors and other joint ventures. As of October 17 this year, the cumulative sales of General Motors and its joint ventures in China have exceeded 2 million vehicles, which is the second time that GM has exceeded the 2 million mark in China's history. The first time was on November 4 last year. It can be seen that the completion time of the second two million vehicles this year was two months earlier than last year.

In fact, this year's decline in self-owned brands is attributed to the above-mentioned policy issues, and being squeezed by joint venture brands is unfair. The view of SAIC-GM-Wuling's general manager Shenyang was worth pondering when Baojun was listed. He believes that in recent years, the development of Chinese autos has been too rapid, the market has grown faster than the general laws, and the basic needs of consumers have not been done enough, resulting in the loss of independent brands. The motivation.

Without learning, not advancing, there is no independent brand with good internal skills that drags on the hind legs of Chinese cars. Admittedly, despite the expected downward adjustment, the 3% increase still means sales of approximately 18.6 million vehicles, which will still enable China to secure its position as the world's largest auto market. However, in the face of the collective aphasia of self-owned brands, how much is this “first” gold content?